A mere eight weeks ago that Morgan Rogers was standing on the Stadium of Light pitch, appearing bewildered as Unai Emery scolded him for failing to anticipate a pass in behind. Back then, as Villa went six without a win, it wasn't clear if Rogers' form were a symptom or the reason for the team's wider issues.
“As Rogers swept in his second… Emery ripped off his thick padded coat, spread his arms and roared.”
On Sunday, though, the manager's outburst was entirely much more joyous. When the in-form star drilled in his brace-sealing goal to reinstate Villa's lead, the Spanish tactician ripped off his winter coat, threw his arms wide and bellowed. The team were on their way to a 10th successive win and despite not winning their initial half-dozen matches, now sit just three points behind pace-setters Arsenal.
Are They Legitimate Challengers?
This is a particularly tough question to resolve. History, the perceived status of Villa, suggests not. Moreover, they've rarely been entirely convincing this season, even as the wins have stacked up.
As per the data, twice all season has the team had an expected goals figure notably superior than the other team. For a side that have strung together a ten-match winning streak, they look weirdly vulnerable – yet currently the margins are going in their favour.
The Rogers Recipe
The current approach appears to be to trade blows with the opposition and then rely on their talisman to bail them out with two crisp finishes. This occurred against Leeds, it transpired in London, and it happened against the Red Devils.
The initial strike originated from a superb shot, arced right inside the post from the edge of the area. For his second acted as a slight scruffier version of his first as he pounced on an Ollie Watkins lay-off.
“Perhaps Rogers’ right foot is becoming like Arjen Robben’s left: just because you know he’s going to whip the ball into the top corner doesn’t mean you can stop him.”
Can It Last?
Logic says not. Against United, the opposition registered a greater number of attempts and more shots on target. Villa have secured their last eight victories by just one goal. The defence has been breached in nearly all of those games.
A reversion to average could be the most significant challenge the club have to face in the near future. The forward, in all likelihood, cannot keep on thrashing the ball into the net's top corner week in, week out.
A Case for Belief
Perhaps there is a different scenario whereby, rather than luck running out, performances begin to trend towards results. Vital cogs might still rediscover their best form.
- The centre-forward may begin to finding the net regularly.
- Jadon Sancho might become the performer he was at Borussia Dortmund.
- Tyrone Mings and Pau Torres will eventually return from injury, bolstering an occasionally vulnerable defensive unit.
Maybe within that lies the seeds for a sustained push, yet it seems unlikely cannot keep relying on Morgan Rogers.
Enjoying the Ride
However, this was unforeseen. It seemed improbable Aston Villa would be third at Christmas. And without a doubt two months ago, few could imagine the midfielder as the year closed would be spearheading a championship pursuit and appearing as an essential player for the national team.
This remarkable period must be cherished precisely because it feels so unlikely. When the hero stood in front of the Villa faithful at the final whistle conducting the cheers, he appeared to be thoroughly enjoying it. As he deserves to. These runs of form are uncommon in the sport and ought to be celebrated.
