Ten years after the UK entered into a rushed referendum that polarised the nation and unleashed chaos, a advisory is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and voters drifted into Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating disturbances for which no one is equipped.
That is the message from two prominent writers from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly fraught and seismic referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gain traction swiftly," O’Toole stated. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our region remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Intends to Provoke Discussion
The pair have studied the political, economic and cultural rationales for any governmental shift in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the issue with a tour of public talks that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns all parties, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a binary, ambiguous question whose results have not been clarified because then you land with an extremely polarised community where the losing side are not reconciled to defeat and the those successful are uncertain precisely what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say that moment is imminent, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and unionists play down the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity if and when there might be a referendum.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language for and against unification has masked the lack of substantive discussion, said McBride.
"Many are for or against the concept but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has occurred in academia but hardly any government figures or activists want to engage with even the fundamentals. For instance, which kind of country would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, neither author supports unity or the status quo. They writes two essays that aim for neutrality in presenting the argument for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, assembling economic and societal data, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Arguments range over flags and symbols, duties, medical care, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of loyalist violence. The aim is to enlighten and provoke conversation.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there has not yet occurred a discussion," stated the writer. "Dialogue suggests an recognition of the idea that there may exist valid points on each side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate report they support unity but refuse greater financial contributions or adopting a alternative symbol to reflect unionists' British identity.
"The Irish government does need to work out what the proposal from nationalist groups is aside from just declaring: 'We want a united Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist considers a referendum in his lifetime is likely and that it may take place abruptly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a bad or a negligent government minister who declares: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have reasonable, legitimate arguments, he stated. "Somebody will succeed in this matter and somebody will eventually be defeated but both parties has possesses something to acquire from the alternative viewpoints."
Appeal for Broader Debate
Westminster needed to engage with the dialogue, stated O’Toole. "This is about the United Kingdom. It's a British question just as much as it is an Irish issue."
